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Abstract

Sporadic demand presents a particular challenge to traditional time forecasting methods. In the past 50 years, there has been developments, such as, the Croston Model [3], which has improved forecast performance. With the rise of Machine Learning (ML) there is abundant research in the field of applying ML algorithms to predict sporadic demand [8][12][9]. However, most existing research has analyzed this problem from the demand side [17]. In this paper, we tackle this predictive analytics challenge from the supply side. We perform a comparative analysis utilizing a spare parts demand dataset from an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). Since traditional measurements of forecast are unsuitable for sporadic demand data because of its sparse nature, we propose a novel method to forecast performance measurement which incorporates the trade-off of economic gains and obsolescence risks incurred.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License

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