This paper shows the inadequacy of current grid backup supplies, their ongoing threat to grid reliability, and the increased risk of customer blackouts. This paper also examines reliability concerns caused by renewable energy sources under more normal operating conditions. This paper seeks to model the impacts of extreme weather on ERCOTs grid. Unusual weather patterns require that the electrical grid operates in conditions outside normal operating parameters. Electrical system demand can spike well above normal levels. At the same time, weather influences can change the operating envelope of electrical generation equipment. The ERCOT grid has changed from its’ traditional mix of conventionally powered generation, including gas, coal, and nuclear. The recent addition of significant renewable energy generation, solar and wind, poses a new set of challenges to grid reliability and energy availability. Using time-series analysis, this paper provides methods to model expected electrical demand for extreme events. Furthermore, this paper will explore what limitations on renewable energy are necessary considering grid reliability requirements. This paper shows that the grid currently operates with inadequate spinning reserve, an ongoing threat to grid reliability, that risks forced blackouts for customers.
Modeling Electric Energy Generation in ERCOT during Extreme Weather Events and the Impact Renewable Energy has on Grid Reliability
Ruthford, Adam R. and Sadler, Bivin
"Modeling Electric Energy Generation in ERCOT during Extreme Weather Events and the Impact Renewable Energy has on Grid Reliability,"
SMU Data Science Review: Vol. 5:
3, Article 6.
Available at: https://scholar.smu.edu/datasciencereview/vol5/iss3/6
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