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Abstract

This paper covers the development, testing, and implementation of an automatic framework for analyzing and forecasting demand for an alcoholic beverage distributor’s products at varying levels of granularity. Rather than look at macroscale geographic demand for a product from a distribution center, this framework will look at the localized customer level demand for that product before aggregating total demand. The approach will better capture individual behavior variations for each customer and allow for a more accurate estimation of the total monthly demand for that product. To best account for each product’s influencing factors, each product is analyzed separately per customer with both traditional time series and contemporary machine learning models to identify the best performing forecasts. This research sets up an AutoML framework to individually identify the best forecasting model for different product and customer combinations.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License

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