Journal of Air Law and Commerce
ORCID (Links to author’s additional scholarship at ORCID.org)
Abstract
Space, “the final frontier,” has become an attractive but increasingly risky market for both public and private investments. Gold rush enthusiasm anticipates solutions to the digital divide via small low earth orbiting satellites, extraction of valuable minerals from asteroids, a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, and expanding earth observation opportunities. Such entrepreneurial boldness juxtaposes with a severe lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails. The ambitious plans of Elon Musk and other space entrepreneurs could fail—despite recent market success—as SpaceX’s plans for 148 rocket launches in 2024.
Without substantial refinement of global space treaties and effective national regulation, expanding and imprudent use of space resources could render the most valuable regions of space unusable. Satellites could collide or crash into orbiting debris at extremely high speeds, most likely in a crowded orbital region, such as 200–1,200 miles above Earth where low earth orbiting satellites operate.
Even more costly calamities would occur when a valuable, fully operational satellite collides with space debris––such as a deactivated satellite––or when it becomes a target in a test of anti-satellite (ASAT) technology. The likelihood of spacecraft collisions increases substantially when spacefaring nations and private ventures do not nudge useless objects upward, farther into deep space, or on a downward trajectory toward Earth that usually results in complete vaporization. The testing and future use of ASAT technology risks weaponizing space, despite treaty-level commitments to use it solely for peaceful purposes benefitting everyone.
This article explains how national governments have generated or tolerated the proliferation of space debris to potentially dangerous levels without penalty. It further explains that intergovernmental agreements, such as the five space treaties administered by the United Nations and the space resource and spectrum management agreements of the International Telecommunication Union, have neither required space debris mitigation nor sanctioned operators responsible for generating more waste.
The failure to address and resolve proliferating space debris from ASATs and abandoned space objects will increase the potential for calamities that would render space access too risky. The article identifies how intergovernmental agreements can mandate space debris mitigation, impose sanctions for noncompliance, and create financial incentives for recycling and removing existing debris.
Recommended Citation
Rob Frieden, Dangers from Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space,
90
J. Air L. & Com.
3
(2025)
