Journal of Air Law and Commerce
ORCID (Links to author’s additional scholarship at ORCID.org)
Abstract
Just as space commerce appears to have reached a critical mass, competing national government interests can thwart progress with strategies and tactics that increase market risk, volatility, and uncertainty. Despite universal support for a treaty-level commitment to pursue only peaceful activities, for the benefit of everyone, unilateral actions by the governments of China, Russia, and the United States have the potential to disrupt markets and render space a new theater of warfare. These nations appear disinclined to embrace the unenforceable goals contained in five international treaties governing activities in outer space.
So-called Great Power Competition has generated high stakes rivalry to retain or secure supremacy in military, political, economic, and societal spheres. The battle for competitive advantage has the potential to reduce or even thwart continuing success in space markets, because conflict on earth includes an increasingly volatile above ground component.
This article assesses two conflicting trends. On one hand, space commerce in 2023 generated an estimated $630 billion in economic activity, rising to a potential $1.8 trillion by 2035. Low Earth orbiting satellite constellations have the potential to bridge the Digital Divide by providing a reliable infrastructure for affordable broadband access, even in remote, rural, and impoverished locales throughout the world. Other new market opportunities include development of a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, space exploration, colonization of the Moon and Mars, and an expanded array of services via commercial satellites.
On the other hand, longstanding and emerging challenges in outer space may shift from chronic and unresolved, to acute and potentially catastrophic. National governments and private ventures can avoid triggering worst case scenarios only if they accept compulsory limits on space weapons testing and use, coupled with effective measures to reduce the risk of collisions with discarded or operational spacecraft.
The article identifies the most pressing and emerging quandaries, many of which result from a nation’s failure to comply with limitations on space activity broadly framed by international treaties entered into force over 40 years ago. Because governments of the world have not reached consensus on whether and how to modernize the treaties, the currently in force agreements do not address market entry by private ventures, lack an enforcement mechanism to compel compliance, and rely primarily on the good will of all countries to support noble aspirations that increasingly deviate from individual national interests.
The article also explains how emerging technologies and business plans contribute to both revenue enhancement and greater risk of calamity. It offers specific recommendations on what unconditional and immediate commitments national governments and private ventures must make to avoid potential ruination of space.
Recommended Citation
Rob Frieden, The Heavy Odds for a Weaponized and Lawless Outer Space,
90
J. Air L. & Com.
409
(2025)
